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PrideOfPEI24

Could the Leafs Dual offer sheet anybody?

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Again, you just ignore that the suggestion is that we acquire 22 and 21 year olds at the bargain price of a Second and imply that we're suggesting we do the Nolan trade all over again because that futs your agenda.

 

Because that couldn't happen, and it's dumb to suggest it could.  

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Because that couldn't happen, and it's dumb to suggest it could.

It could happen and it's dumb to suggest you know it can't.

It is unlikely to happen, for sure, but it is possible. It is certainly more likely than being able to draft a new Shea Weber in the Secnd like you're dreaming about.

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It could happen and it's dumb to suggest you know it can't.

It is unlikely to happen, for sure, but it is possible. It is certainly more likely than being able to draft a new Shea Weber in the Secnd like you're dreaming about.

 

No, it CAN'T happen.  Because both the player and the player's agent would have to be complete MORONS to sign any offer sheet that was clearly below market value.  

 

I can see that you live in a dreamland world where magical things could "possibly, conceivably, maybe, perhaps, if all the stars align, super luckily, hopefully" happen so that the Leafs benefit and everyone else gets fooled and we get a Superstar for nothing.......

 

but in REALITY, it can't and won't happen.

 

And I never said a thing about "drafting Shea Weber" in the 2nd round.  But I'd be very happy to draft a Brandon Saad in the 2nd round.  Ironic that that's where he actually WAS drafted eh, Dreamy McDreamster?

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Again, if the best offer he gets is $3.7m, which is the only reason he would sign an offer-sheet in that amount, then his value is $3.7m. That $3.7m is below market value is nothing more than a naked assertion on your part. Until he signs, his value is unknown. The reality is that it is unlikely to happen, but it can happen. Of course no-one will sign an offer-sheet for $3.7m if they also have an offer-sheet for $3.75m or higher, but then nobody said that they would and only your utterly naked opinion says that they will get such an offer. Again, Subban signed for less than $3m at an identical point in his career which was, at that point, in the range where an offer-sheet would have netted a second round pick.

 

And Shea Weber was one of the players you specifically referenced in the hope that the Leafs could draft a good player in the second round, old love. In regards to Saad, nobody has said that you can't get good players in the second round. What has been said, repeatedly, and what has been backed by an objective analysis performed by TSN is that a player drafted in the second round is more likely to not play fifty games in the NHL than to play fifty or more games in the NHL.

 

What I did was pull out every single draft pick from 2000-2009 (a 10-year span) based on the round they were selected, and binned the players into two groups: players who managed to log at least 50 career games at the NHL level (a reasonable way to identify players who, at worst, became replacement level NHL talent), and players who managed to log 0-49 NHL games at the NHL level (our way to identify a ‘failed’ draft pick).

 

How does the data shake out by round?

 

yost-draft1_53958.jpg

 

So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players.

 

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

So I got the years wrong earlier, it was actually 2000-2009. Regardless, 56% to 44% meaning that, on balance of probabilities, a second-round pick will not play 50 or more games in the NHL.

Edited by Papa Lazarou

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Cap space:
Flyers:2M(4UFA,1RFA)
Lightning:3.5M(1UFA,4RFA)
Habs:4.9M(3UFA,2RFA)
Canucks:5M(2UFA,5RFA)
Bruins:7.2M(5UFA,3RFA)
Hawks:7.3M(6UFA,4RFA)

 

 

I wonder if one of those teams might be desperate enough to clear cap,they'd actually offer up a draft pick along with that player to get rid of his contract?

Lightning with 3.5M in cap space...you know what needs to be done. Offer Andrej Sustr no more than 3.6M so we either get him for a 2nd round pick,or Lightning match and might not have money left over this year,or even next year to offer Stamkos alot!
 

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So there is only a possibility of an offer sheet or signing with your team. No point in holding out and getting traded right? only two choices. There is a reason I do not post here often. So many delusional people. Hmmmmm let us offer sheet someone below value, if the team is not willing to up it, they have no choice but to sign with us. If they don't we piss someone off, but no big deal, they will of course trade with us if we overpay, but no worries, they will not pull that against us when we least need it.

 

You offer sheet when you are almost sure it will work, only when the risk is worth the problem. But hey, burn me, it is all without risk right? In this world there is no repercussions to your actions right?

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 There is a reason I do not post here often. So many delusional people. ?

I don't feel we have a lot of delusional people here.  I feel there is much more realism than most popular hockey forums. 

 

Some things are in left field but I think that is fairly SOP in any place with any type of population.

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Any chance Leafs could dual offer Stanton,Weber on Canucks or Namestnikov,Sustr on Lightning, while having one of those 2 guys sign for only 1.8M?

 

If so, maybe they could offer 1.8M to one guy,and up to 3.6M for the other. And only end up giving up a 2nd and 3rd round pick for two NHL roster players. Lightning with 3.6M in cap space,Canucks with 6.1M.

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Any chance Leafs could dual offer Stanton,Weber on Canucks or Namestnikov,Sustr on Lightning, while having one of those 2 guys sign for only 1.8M?

 

If so, maybe they could offer 1.8M to one guy,and up to 3.6M for the other. And only end up giving up a 2nd and 3rd round pick for two NHL roster players. Lightning with 3.6M in cap space,Canucks with 6.1M.

 

And..............we've learned nothing.

 

:wacko:

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