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King of Dick Mountain

Your 2018/2019 Toronto Maple Leafs

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1 hour ago, King of Dick Mountain said:

"I isolated on Boston here for the obvious playoff format-based reasons, but it’s worth pointing out that Toronto looks a bit underwhelming at even strength relative to a majority of playoff teams. If you compare expected goal rates carried by Toronto over the full season relative to every other playoff contender right now, they are on the wrong side of the head-to-head in most matchups."

Travis Yost, from TSN. On phone, so no link.

Our abysmal performance is so obvious that even Yost noticed it.

BOS in five. If we're lucky.

My two cents.

Sure we have to give some credit to Boston and their performances of not only hemming us in our end at times but they do exactly that to many other teams.

That said, I think this series between us and Boston boils down to intestinal fortitudes.

It won't matter if we have home ice advantage or if we had to win the series on their respective ice.

It will all come down to not being intimidated and knowing that no matter what happened in the past the slates are wiped clean and our team just has to accept the learning curve that is presented before them and staying hungrier than the opponent. 

They have skills, so do we.

Believe in our own skills along with digging into intestinal fortitudes that helps to out work your opponent, play harder, even heavier and accepting a tough battle ahead will be key for our team to beating the bruins and winning the series.

It may seem like a stanley cup effort and one huge hurdle to leap, but again, we have skills to be able to do it.

This is not going to be a cake walk for Boston but I hope they think it will be.

 

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48 minutes ago, Danny said:

My two cents.

Sure we have to give some credit to Boston and their performances of not only hemming us in our end at times but they do exactly that to many other teams.

That said, I think this series between us and Boston boils down to intestinal fortitudes.

It won't matter if we have home ice advantage or if we had to win the series on their respective ice.

It will all come down to not being intimidated and knowing that no matter what happened in the past the slates are wiped clean and our team just has to accept the learning curve that is presented before them and staying hungrier than the opponent. 

They have skills, so do we.

Believe in our own skills along with digging into intestinal fortitudes that helps to out work your opponent, play harder, even heavier and accepting a tough battle ahead will be key for our team to beating the bruins and winning the series.

It may seem like a stanley cup effort and one huge hurdle to leap, but again, we have skills to be able to do it.

This is not going to be a cake walk for Boston but I hope they think it will be.

 

What’s that? He can’t hear you with his head buried in the sand. Yost saying they look underwhelming at ES is a joke when despite all the injuries of late, inconsistencies and areas of weakness (RHD) - they’ve dominated at ES all year and they’re sitting second in the league with a +51 goal differential.

Again, having Tavares, Muzzin, a healthy Matthews, and Kadri for more than 4 games is better than people give them credit for.

Edited by Morrison7

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You need to decide whether to keep your accusation that I am ostritching or the bit of your post where you deliberately and intentionally miss the point being made so that you can keep assuring yourself that everything is fine when ALL of the available evidence shows that it isn't.

The two are mutually incompatible and make you look like you go to Brock and/or are twelve.

That you've decided to jettison your adored advanced stats this time is simply funny, and you should keep that.

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3 hours ago, King of Dick Mountain said:

"I isolated on Boston here for the obvious playoff format-based reasons, but it’s worth pointing out that Toronto looks a bit underwhelming at even strength relative to a majority of playoff teams. If you compare expected goal rates carried by Toronto over the full season relative to every other playoff contender right now, they are on the wrong side of the head-to-head in most matchups."

Travis Yost, from TSN. On phone, so no link.

Our abysmal performance is so obvious that even Yost noticed it.

BOS in five. If we're lucky.

You need to pick a side and stick to it. You constantly flip flop between “probably won’t even make the playoffs” to “BOS in 7. No, wait, 6. Actually, 5. Okay, for real, 4.”

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16 minutes ago, King of Dick Mountain said:

You need to decide whether to keep your accusation that I am ostritching or the bit of your post where you deliberately and intentionally miss the point being made so that you can keep assuring yourself that everything is fine when ALL of the available evidence shows that it isn't.

The two are mutually incompatible and make you look like you go to Brock and/or are twelve.

That you've decided to jettison your adored advanced stats this time is simply funny, and you should keep that.

Third in the East and 11th in the league with a 50.9 CF%, still ahead of Boston in SCF%, top 10 in the league in high-danger scoring chances, 4th in the league in high-danger goals for, still first in PDO...

Yup, trending downward. All that article quotes is expected goals for % over a small sample size... keep in mind that number is better with Kadri and Moore in the lineup.

Keep bitching and moaning like Dubas ran over your dog though.

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from reddit, re: the Yost article

J1alfredo 22 points 2 hours ago 

Yost got his stats from Evolving hockey on Expected goals but some of the stuff he says in this really make me question the accuracy of what he's saying. The leafs have 172G at 5v5 while the Bruins have 117. That makes the Leafs the highest scoring team in the league at 5v5, while the Bruins sit 26th. He mentions the Leafs PP has been clicking all season long (which we all know not to be true). Expected goals is a dubious metric to use 1 source for since there's no definite way of calculating it that's unanimous amongst the stat community. Most metrics point to the Leafs being a better 5v5 team all season long than the Bruins, who frequently relied on a strong PP and higher team Save% than the Leafs. This article is kinda iffy.

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I have never argued that we "probably" won't make the playoffs. I have pointed out that we are still very far from a lock for the playoffs. I also didn't say anything about trending downwards, but I do understand why you want to talk bout anything but the point being made.

You don't win a Cup for being on a 107 point pace, for being 3rd in your division or for any of the other little participation trophies you guys like to bang on about when you're deflecting. You get a Cup for beating your peers in the postseason, something which all of the available evidence suggests is unlikely to happen to us.

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4 minutes ago, King of Dick Mountain said:

I have never argued that we "probably" won't make the playoffs. I have pointed out that we are still very far from a lock for the playoffs. I also didn't say anything about trending downwards, but I do understand why you want to talk bout anything but the point being made.

You don't win a Cup for being on a 107 point pace, for being 3rd in your division or for any of the other little participation trophies you guys like to bang on about when you're deflecting. You get a Cup for beating your peers in the postseason, something which all of the available evidence suggests is unlikely to happen to us.

On 3/1/2019 at 3:59 PM, King of Dick Mountain said:

Fair enough, I mis-timed last year's slump. So we're actually doing worse this year, by a metric that, you know, matters.

Seems I've actually been overly optimistic.

BOS in four? If we make the playoffs, that is. Last I checked we were only eight points out of 9th, PIT have a game in hand on us and we're 5-4-1.

On 2/19/2019 at 10:49 PM, King of Dick Mountain said:

We might not even make the playoffs at this rate.

Everything's fine, though.

On 1/20/2019 at 10:06 PM, King of Dick Mountain said:

We're not going to make the playoffs. 

The worse you play on this team, the more you're rewarded. Accountability is only for Nylander. Everyone else gets a pass.

 

lmao yeah sure thing dude

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sure thing dude, get caught up on the semantics of "probably" when the evidence is right there in front of you. you flat out said "we aren't going to make the playoffs" and you're focused on my usage of probably, and you have the audacity to say that someone else doesn't want to talk about the point that's being made.

in case you weren't sure, the second "quote" wasn't actually a verbatim quote, it was paraphrasing you, just like the first one. 

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25 minutes ago, King of Dick Mountain said:

I have never argued that we "probably" won't make the playoffs. I have pointed out that we are still very far from a lock for the playoffs. I also didn't say anything about trending downwards, but I do understand why you want to talk bout anything but the point being made.

You don't win a Cup for being on a 107 point pace, for being 3rd in your division or for any of the other little participation trophies you guys like to bang on about when you're deflecting. You get a Cup for beating your peers in the postseason, something which all of the available evidence suggests is unlikely to happen to us.

“All the available evidence”

Are you sure about that? As Yost literally used one metric in that article. The same Yost who suggested that Bergevin should trade Weber to Toronto and Montreal should retain salary, no less.

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1 minute ago, Morrison7 said:

“All the available evidence”

Are you sure about that? As Yost literally used one metric in that article. The same Yost who suggested that Bergevin should trade Weber to Toronto and Montreal should retain salary, no less.

In fairness to him on that point, his evidence is definitely going to include the way the Leafs play against the Bruins. You picked a bad point to argue, should’ve hopped on with my shit

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1 minute ago, Mantis Toboggan said:

In fairness to him on that point, his evidence is definitely going to include the way the Leafs play against the Bruins. You picked a bad point to argue, should’ve hopped on with my shit

Probably, shit happens. Being said - this team didn’t have Tavares, Muzzin, Kadri for  the full series, or Matthews at 100% health last year. We all know that regular season success against certain teams doesn’t translate to playoff success against them either.

New Jersey last season went 3-0 against Tampa in the regular season. Tampa proceeded to wipe the floor with them in round 1.

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Duszak would be a nice pickup. Obviously helps that he's a RHD. Both guys are on smaller end though. Duszak is about the size of Johnsson, and Hirose about the size of Ennis. Hirose is one of top college FAs and will be 23 next year. Duszak will be 22 next season.

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20 minutes ago, Armster said:

Dunno. Say the top third of the league.  

I went with all teams from 1-11(since Preds/Canes have same point total). Islanders were the team to mess up numbers abit (-7 5v5 differential).

Overall, Leafs have scored 49 goals and allowed 44 in 5v5 situations vs top 10 teams. Number which matters the most, they're -5 in this situation vs Bruins.

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Since Kappy is injured and Nylander will be back on Matthews line I wonder if to make that line more cozy if Hyman should be back on it and throw Johnsson on the JT line?

Johnsson - JT - Marner

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander

just something I pondered on and wondered about.

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