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CognitiveBias

Shapiro's Vision for the Toronto Blue Jays

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It's pretty clear what his vision is.  Draft and develop. It's just unfortunate he had Atkins pulling the trade strings as well.  It is what it is at this point and hope that his fundamental prospect identifiers make up for everything else.

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1 hour ago, Armster said:

It's pretty clear what his vision is.  Draft and develop. It's just unfortunate he had Atkins pulling the trade strings as well.  It is what it is at this point and hope that his fundamental prospect identifiers make up for everything else.

I'm trying to figure out this "years of control" thing right now that Atkins was talking about yesterday and how exactly it's valued. 

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1 hour ago, CognitiveBias said:

I'm trying to figure out this "years of control" thing right now that Atkins was talking about yesterday and how exactly it's valued. 

It's essentially the Rays model.  So look at how they've built their team, continue to keep the pipeline flowing, and managed to stay competitive.  It's not easy but the Jays know that they are an organization that isn't going to attract the best players through FA nor can they afford to build a core that way including players they've developed.  Their money has to be carefully spent, not that they won't spend it in specific scenarios but if they are making a decision to spend it, it needs to be the right decision.  There is a lot of value in having good players under team control for x numbers of years but when those players leave for FA you need to ensure you have replacements.  Again, the Rays model over the last decade.

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That model hasn't done much for the Rays unfortunately. That said, I think they have the #3 farm in baseball right now.

The problem is the Rays have the lowest attendance by far in baseball and need to account for every penny possible (or they get relocated to Montreal I'm assuming). An accounting model based on "years of control accumulation" is flawed, especially for a big market team like the Jays. It's not simply about the money savings, but there is a disconnect between years of control accumulated at the minors and how that translates into impactful major league players. It's way too simplistic.

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All that said, I'm a lot higher on the Stroman deal now than I was initially. A lot of scouts think SWR will be a top 100 MLB prospect in a year or two. And, although Kay is 24 now, he missed a year and a half with Tommy John surgery and is close to being at 100 prospect right now. We still lost this trade, but it looks better to me now than it did before.

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We'll find out soon who Derek Fisher really is and if Sanchez bounces back. Fisher never had much of a chance in Houston because of their outfield depth. He has amazing speed and defensive ability and can hit well. They Jays need to give him a good long look the rest of this year to know what they have.

Maybe this all works out better than it looks at the moment.

Edited by CognitiveBias

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1 hour ago, CognitiveBias said:

That model hasn't done much for the Rays unfortunately. That said, I think they have the #3 farm in baseball right now.

The problem is the Rays have the lowest attendance by far in baseball and need to account for every penny possible (or they get relocated to Montreal I'm assuming). An accounting model based on "years of control accumulation" is flawed, especially for a big market team like the Jays. It's not simply about the money savings, but there is a disconnect between years of control accumulated at the minors and how that translates into impactful major league players. It's way too simplistic.

The Rays problem is that they never invested in a stadium and their park is a tire fire...like it should be burned to the foundation.

It's not simplistic, at all. It's a lot of analytics and they've done it better than anyone else to the point the Yankees and even the Red Sox have taken that approach to an extent.  While it hasn't put them over the top it's a lot better than how we and many other teams have been approaching it and that's fact.   Also doesn't mean shit with this group of management until something works.  It's easy to make the easy picks, not so easy to jump a little outside the typical path.  Certainly, Atkins trades don't inspire any confidence.

 

Fisher is an average prospect with good exit velocity and very underwhelming placement of hits.   Nobody cares if he's fast if he can't get on base.  It will take a lot of work to get him to become an above replacement MLBer. Cal Stevenson is at least equal if not better prospect so we paid to get rid of Sanchez and Biagini essentially.

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16 hours ago, Armster said:

The Rays problem is that they never invested in a stadium and their park is a tire fire...like it should be burned to the foundation.

It's not simplistic, at all. It's a lot of analytics and they've done it better than anyone else to the point the Yankees and even the Red Sox have taken that approach to an extent.  While it hasn't put them over the top it's a lot better than how we and many other teams have been approaching it and that's fact.   Also doesn't mean shit with this group of management until something works.  It's easy to make the easy picks, not so easy to jump a little outside the typical path.  Certainly, Atkins trades don't inspire any confidence.

 

Fisher is an average prospect with good exit velocity and very underwhelming placement of hits.   Nobody cares if he's fast if he can't get on base.  It will take a lot of work to get him to become an above replacement MLBer. Cal Stevenson is at least equal if not better prospect so we paid to get rid of Sanchez and Biagini essentially.

I agree with you, but let's give Fisher a chance. Donaldson started his MLB career at 26 and eventually became the 2nd ever league MVP for the Jays. Also, Bautista and Encarnacion were pretty much washed up until they came to the Jays. Sometimes players bloom late. Fisher has a good skill set and never had a much of a chance in Houston because they  have too many MLB level outfielders (which is why they sent us Hernandez as well).

That all said, last night was a kind of a bad omen. Sanchez and Biagini are involved in a combined no-hitter and Fisher misses a routine fly ball that hits him square in the face. Just adding insult to injury for Jays fans!

Edited by CognitiveBias

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